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Learn in 3 minutes

Everything you need to know to play, and a quick Rule Check so you know how scoring works.

1. One question, one outcome

Every question has a close time and a public source. In the end it's Yes or No. Read the Rule Lens: it tells you exactly what counts and what doesn't.

2. Your forecast is a percentage

Slide from 1% to 99%. 70% means “I think this happens 7 times out of 10.” There's no money; what matters is how well calibrated you are.

3. Scoring rewards honesty

We use the Brier score: (your % − outcome)². Lower is better. Always saying 50% scores 0.250. Being very sure and wrong hurts; being very sure and right helps.

4. Write down your reasoning

The optional note is saved with your call. When the question resolves, Hindsight shows what you thought and what happened.

Common questions

Is Hunch Call Lab free?

Yes. It is a free, play-only game. There is no money, no prizes and no wagering, and play points have no cash value.

What is a forecast here?

A percentage from 1% to 99% for how likely you think a Yes is. Seventy percent means you expect it about seven times out of ten.

How am I scored?

With the Brier score, (your percentage minus the outcome) squared. Lower is better, and always saying 50% scores 0.250, so beating that shows real skill.

Who decides how a question resolves?

Each question lists what counts, what does not, and a public source. The result is confirmed by a person against that source.

Can I keep my reasons private?

Yes. The note you write with a call is visible only to you, in Hindsight.